Russian mercenary chief Prigozhin is a ‘dead man walking,’ Eurasia Group’s Ian Bremmer says

As part of the deal brokered by Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, Prigozhin would go into exile in Belarus in exchange for calling off the insurrection. The Kremlin agreed to drop the criminal case against Prigozhin, according to the state-controlled outlet Tass.

“Obviously this does show a level of unprecedented weakness for President Putin,” Bremmer said.

“But at the same time, while Putin was unprecedently tested, there was not a single high-level defection from the Russian military, from the Russian government or among the Russian oligarchs — so anyone that believes that Putin is suddenly … on the brink of leaving power, also needs to recognize that’s not where we are,” he added.

The bitter feud between Prigozhin and the military establishment in Moscow escalated in recent weeks after the Kremlin wanted all private mercenary forces to sign contracts with the Defense Ministry by July 1. Prigozhin had refused.

The standoff spilled into the open when Prigozhin launched an armed rebellion on Friday after accusing the Russian army of firing at his mercenaries.

“Prigozhin’s objective was to draw Putin’s attention and to impose a discussion about conditions to preserve his activities — a defined role, security, and funding,” Tatiana Stanovaya, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, wrote on Twitter.

“These weren’t demands for a governmental overthrow; they were a desperate bid to save the enterprise, hoping that Prigozhin’s merits in taking Bakhmut … would be taken into account and the concerns would catch Putin’s serious attention,” she added.

The Wagner fighters have been a significant force in Putin’s war against Ukraine, and played an important role in the capture of the eastern city of Bakhmut.