The great realignment

July 14, 2022

Source: Link

Shifts in the demographics of the two parties’ supporters — taking place before our eyes — are arguably the biggest political story of our time.

The big picture: Republicans are becoming more working class and a little more multiracial. Democrats are becoming more elite and a little more white.

Why it matters: Democrats’ hopes for retaining power rest on nonwhite voters remaining a reliable part of the party’s coalition. Democrats’ theory of the case collapses if Republicans make even incremental gains with those voters.

Even small inroads with Hispanic voters could tip a number of Democratic-held swing seats to the GOP.

What the data show: Democrats are statistically tied with Republicans among Hispanics on the generic congressional ballot, according to a New York Times-Siena College poll out this week. Dems held a 47-point edge with Hispanics during the 2018 midterms.

An NBC News poll in April found Democrats held a 38-point lead among women with college degrees — up from 10 points from 2010. Democrats lost ground with nearly every other demographic group tested in the survey.
Nearly every House pickup in the 2020 election came from a woman or non-white challenger. The GOP’s ability to win back a House majority this year rests on the success of candidates breaking the party’s typical mold.

What’s happening: Democratic strategists say the party’s biggest vulnerability is assuming that the priorities of progressive activists are the same as those of working-class voters.

Progressive activists led the push to cut police budgets. Communities of color have borne the brunt of higher crime.
Hispanics living on the U.S.-Mexico border are more likely to favor tougher border security measures that Republicans have championed.
The recall of liberal school board members and a district attorney in San Francisco was fueled by disillusioned Asian-American Democrats.

Between the lines: Add the reality of growing inflation and worries of recession, and you see why Democrats are losing ground with a core part of their coalition.

Wealthier Americans aren’t feeling the day-to-day hardship hitting the working class.
This week’s Times/Siena poll found affluent voters care about gun control and abortion rights. Working-class voters are squarely focused on the economy.

Reality check: Suburban districts still make up the majority of congressional battlegrounds, and the GOP’s Trumpified brand remains a threat to limit their gains.

Republican candidates holding extreme views on abortion or echoing Trump’s election lies are still toxic in the suburbs.
Since the Supreme Court’s abortion ruling, Democrats have made small gains in national polls.

The bottom line: The GOP is trading soccer moms for Walmart dads.

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