New data: GOP’s gap with independent voters

December 27, 2022

Source: Axios

Written by: Josh Kraushaar

Data: AP VoteCast, conducted by NORC at the University of Chicago for The Associated Press. (The remaining voters chose “another candidate.”) Chart: Jacque Schrag/Axios

Interviews with midterm voters show Republicans continually underperform Democrats with one of the ripest targets in politics — independents who say they don’t lean toward either party.

Why it matters: The interviews, by AP VoteCast (methodology), show a critical mass of moderates aren’t thrilled with Democrats — but are resistant to a MAGA-fied GOP.

The data show Republicans have been stuck in the high 30s among independents in each of the past three elections.

These voters made up 12% of the electorate in 2018, 5% in 2020 and 8% in 2022.
20% of independents didn’t vote for either party in 2022 (the missing votes in the chart above).

Between the lines: In November, independents didn’t entirely blame Biden for the bad economy, even though they rated it poorly, AP reports.

Few independents said the economy is doing well — and about two-thirds disapproved of Biden’s handling of it.
But independents were slightly more likely to say inflation is the result of factors outside Biden’s control.

Reality check: That nuance was often missing from GOP messaging.

Relevant and recent posts

Niall Ferguson: “I don’t think a World War III is likely”

CBS News has confirmed that Russia is providing intelligence to Iran about U.S. positions in the Middle East. This information could help Tehran strike the…

Thought Leader: Niall Ferguson