Ian Bremmer: Why Trump won’t break the Putin-Xi alliance

March 4, 2025

Source: GZERO

Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week on World In :60.

Does Trump’s relationship with Putin isolate or concern China?

I wouldn’t say so. I think that Putin and Xi Jinping have one of the stronger relationships on the global stage today. I think they’ve met something like 81 times bilaterally since the two have been in power. They’re both leaders for life, they run dictatorships, and they support each other all the time at the United Nations.

There’s a lot of technology and trade, and China needs to buy Russian energy. The Americans certainly don’t. So, for lots of reasons, this relationship is much more stable and strong than anything that Trump is likely to build with Putin.

Especially because Trump is a one more term president, 78 years old, with checks and balances in the US, even if they’re getting weaker, they exist. That’s not true in Russia. It’s not true in China. So, I don’t think Beijing is very worried about that.

What does the resignation of Iran’s Vice President Zarif signal about tensions in the country?

Well, given the fact that the finance minister was also just impeached this weekend, also a would-be reformist, a moderate, in the context of the Iranian political spectrum, it means the supreme leader and the conservatives do not trust these guys to engage with the Americans or the West.

It’s a harder line Iranian policy as they move towards greater levels of stockpiling, of enriched uranium, and as their military strategy has fallen apart for the region. If anyone is going to talk to the Americans, and if anyone is going to try to forestall attacks from Israel, and maybe by the US as well, it’s not going to be the people that got the original Iranian nuclear deal done, the JCPOA.

So, that’s what it looks like in reform. Nascent under a lot of trouble. The Iranian president under a lot of pressure right now at home.

What’s next for the Israel-Hamas ceasefire as the first phase comes to an end?

Well, I think what everyone is waiting for is the Egypt deal, which is being penned and is being sent over in advance of an Arab League summit to Trump in the coming hours, if not day. Originally, it was a few hundred pages long.

The Saudis told the Egyptians, “Maybe you want to have an executive summary that’s a little glossier for Trump? He’s not reading a couple hundred pages.” That’s been worked on all weekend. And it certainly isn’t the Americans owning Gaza.

It certainly isn’t the Palestinians being forced out or all voluntarily leaving.

Whether or not Trump is prepared to sign off on that, or at least allow it to go forward and not veto it, as long as it hits that hurdle, I think you’ll have pretty much all of the Arab states signing off on it in the Arab summit. That’s where we are right now, and I’ll talk to you all real soon.

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