Stephen Halmarick on RBA Surprise Holds Rates
July 8, 2025
In this episode of InEconomics, Ratih Luhur speaks with Stephen Halmarick—former Chief Economist of Commonwealth Bank and now with InEconomics—about the Reserve Bank of Australia’s…
Stephen Halmarick is one of Australia’s most respected economic communicators, with nearly four decades of experience translating complex financial and market trends into clear, actionable insights. He brings a rare combination of deep technical expertise and engaging presentation style, making him a trusted voice for Boards, C-suite leaders, and global investor audiences. With a strong focus on data-driven analysis, sustainability, and future-facing economic strategy, Stephen delivers timely and relevant perspectives that help organizations navigate change and make informed decisions.
In a time of heightened global uncertainty and structural economic shifts, understanding the macro-economic landscape is critical for informed business strategy. In this keynote, Stephen Halmarick presents an independent and authoritative analysis of the global and Australian economies, covering growth forecasts, inflation dynamics, trade flows, geopolitical influences, and financial market trends. With clarity and precision, Stephen connects international developments with domestic implications, helping business leaders anticipate risks, identify opportunities, and make decisions grounded in economic reality. This session is essential for executives seeking context and confidence amid economic complexity.
Key Takeaways:
Monetary policy decisions in Australia and the United States have far-reaching implications for business, investment and economic performance. In this keynote, Stephen Halmarick delivers an expert analysis of current policy settings by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and the US Federal Reserve, unpacking the rationale behind recent rate decisions and providing a forward-looking outlook for interest rates. Drawing on global economic indicators, inflation trends and central bank commentary, Stephen offers a practical and business-relevant interpretation of what monetary policy means for financial markets, capital costs and strategic planning.
Key Takeaways:
Australia’s fiscal environment continues to play a defining role in shaping economic and business confidence. In this keynote, Stephen Halmarick provides a clear and comprehensive analysis of both the Australian Commonwealth and State Budgets, examining spending priorities, revenue forecasts, debt levels, and broader economic implications. With his deep experience in public finance and economic forecasting, Stephen offers audiences a balanced and practical perspective on how government decisions impact sectors, industries and investment sentiment. This session helps business leaders, policymakers and financial professionals navigate the implications of fiscal policy on planning, compliance and growth strategies.
Key Takeaways:
Understanding the broader economic environment is essential for strategic decision-making in every organisation. In this keynote, Stephen Halmarick, one of Australia’s most respected economists, unpacks the key macroeconomic forces shaping the business landscape, including interest rates, inflation, global market pressures and fiscal policy. With a clear, data-driven approach, Stephen translates complex economic trends into practical insights for Australian business leaders, boards and decision-makers. This session equips audiences with a sharper understanding of where the economy is heading and what it means for business performance, investment planning and risk management in the year ahead.
Key Takeaways:
Stephen Halmarick brings authority, clarity and composure to high-level panel discussions, drawing on his deep expertise in economics and financial markets. He is skilled at guiding dynamic conversations with senior leaders, ensuring panel objectives are met while keeping discussions accessible and outcomes-focused. Stephen effectively manages audience Q&A, drawing out meaningful insights and maintaining engagement throughout. Ideal for conferences, boardroom briefings or industry summits seeking informed, well-structured dialogue on complex economic issues.
Stephen Halmarick is a confident and credible MC for conferences and business events, bringing a sharp understanding of industry context and audience priorities. With his background in economics and executive leadership, he sets a professional tone, ensures smooth transitions, and keeps the event aligned with its objectives. Stephen fosters collaboration between Speakers and delegates, adds informed commentary where appropriate, and maintains energy and focus across sessions. Ideal for programs requiring a knowledgeable host who can connect themes, ideas and people with authority and ease.
Stephen Halmarick has over 39 years of experience as a bank and financial markets economist in Australia and is widely regarded as one of the best economic communicators in the country. He served as Chief Economist and Head of Global Economic & Markets Research at Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CommBank) from January 2018 to January 2025.
Throughout his career, Stephen has been recognized for his skill in presenting economic and market insights to all levels of audiences in Australia and globally, including Boards, C-suite, large client events, 1-1 client meetings, hedge funds, institutional investors, central banks and retail customers.
Stephen pioneered the use of internally generated data at CommBank, leading to the development of the Household Spending Insights (HSI) research product. He also initiated the Sustainable Economics research strategy at CommBank and has recently completed the University of Cambridge Institute of Sustainable Leadership ‘Towards Net Zero’ course. Under his leadership, the CommBank Economics team earned top rankings in multiple categories for many years, including in the 2024 Peter Lee Institutional and Corporate client surveys.
Stephen was also a Member-elected director on the Commonwealth Bank Group Superannuation Board (2016-2024) and was Chair of the Australian Business Economists (ABE) for 9 years (2008-2017).
In May 2025 Stephen established his own economics consulting business, Economics Unchained, providing economic presentation, consulting, advisory and research services. In May 2025 Stephen also joined the InEconomics network of independent economists in Australia.
Stephen’s previous roles include Chief Economist for Colonial First State Global Asset Management (2009-2017), Co-Head of Economic & Market Analysis for Citi Australia/NZ (2000-2009) and senior economic and financial market strategy roles at Salomon Smith Barney/Citibank, County NatWest/NatWest Markets (1994-2000), Nomura Research Institute (1993), SBC Dominquez Barry/DBSM (1989-1993) and Westpac (1986-1989).
Stephen holds a Bachelor of Economics from Macquarie University, a graduate diploma from the Securities Institute of Australia (SIA), is a Graduate of the Australian Institute of Company Directors (AICD) and is accredited by the Australian Financial Markets Assoc (AFMA). He is a Life Member of the ABE.
I would have liked to see Stephen Halmarick present a little longer, as his content was great and very clearly delivered.
CommBank Economic Roadshow
Stephen’s take [is] pragmatic. I believe he is the first prominent Australian economist this cycle who argues persuasively for fiscal policy to do its share of the heavy lifting to address inflation.
Australian Corporate Treasury Association