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Not enough bad news is priced into the financial markets
By Dambisa Moyo (original source Financial Times)
“How much bad news is priced into the global markets?
The gap between the prevailing market prices – stocks, rates, credit and volatility — and forecasts of poor economic growth, political instability and social unrest would suggest that the answer is “not enough”.
Global growth forecasts from the International Monetary Fund warn that the world economy may never return to the pace of expansion seen before the 2008 financial crisis . Meanwhile, recent analysis from McKinsey, the global consulting firm, posits that the rate of GDP growth is set to decline to just over 2 per cent a year — 40 per cent lower than its rate over the past 50 years. Their research claims per capita GDP growth would be 20 per cent lower than in the past half century.”
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The Moral Hazard of Lower Interest Rates
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