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If Elizabeth Warren surges, and economy stutters, she could win the presidency

Thought Leader: Niall Ferguson
October 15, 2019
Source: Link

By Niall Ferguson (Original source Boston Globe)

“Is it conceivable that, in just over a year’s time, Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts could defeat Donald Trump to become America’s first woman president? Yes. Here’s why.

Since the summer, Warren has surged. Former vice president Joe Biden was far ahead of her in the polls back in May: 41 percent to 8 percent. Today he is at 28 percent to her 23 percent, according to the RealClear Politics polling average. Biden is floundering, his age showing, his reputation tainted by the swamp that is Ukraine (not to mention China, where his son Hunter has been equally imprudent). Bernie Sanders just suffered a heart attack. Kamala Harris is fading. No one else is close.

The online betting market PredictIt now has Warren as the clear favorite, with a 51 percent chance of victory to Biden’s 23 percent. PredictIt also gives Warren a 36 percent chance of winning the presidency itself. Trump is only 39 percent.”

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