Doom: The Politics of Catastrophe by Niall Ferguson review
(Evening Standard) – From plagues and volcanic eruptions to the current Covid pandemic, mankind has always been faced with catastrophes.
Thought Leader: Niall Ferguson
Tony Abbott: How an ‘America First’ Policy Can Benefit U.S. Allies
Trump may help nations rediscover their economic vigor, martial strength and sense of national purpose.
Rather than complain about President Trump, consider the world from his viewpoint. The way he sees it, the U.S. has spent blood and treasure in largely futile wars to democratize benighted countries, has provided security for largely ungrateful allies, and has seen its economic strength and technological edge erode due to globalization that has benefited America’s enemies more than America itself.
Hence, Mr. Trump is scrapping green rules that have diminished America’s economic security. He is abolishing “diversity” mania, which has crimped productivity. He is expelling Chinese students from universities where they steal American knowhow and ending the woke madness that pretends “gender” is whatever you say it is.
He also is imposing heavy tariffs to restore American industrial capacity, protect industries like pharmaceuticals and information technology, and generate revenue to deliver big tax cuts. He figures tariffs are a tax that U.S. consumers can avoid by buying domestic products, and that a tariff of more than 10% is the price foreigners should gladly pay for access to the U.S. market.
Mr. Trump believes misguided idealism and wrongheaded economics have harmed the U.S. What’s needed is a good dose of putting America first. Unsurprisingly, the allies that have been bludgeoned into promising to spend more on defense, and the economic partners that are going to lose some of their access and competitive advantage in American markets, are crying foul. But this president is the reality that has to be dealt with, so rather than complaining, it would be wise to learn the right lessons.
So far, Keir Starmer has succeeded best. He’s no ideological soul mate to Mr. Trump but is shrewd enough to praise him, to promise an increase in British defense spending, and to invite him to Buckingham Palace. As a result, the U.K. faces the least burdensome of Mr. Trump’s tariffs.
Tariffs reduce overall economic well-being and will disrupt U.S. industries, like cars, with highly integrated supply chains. But economic well-being isn’t nation-states’ only concern. Military strength, and avoiding vulnerability to rivals, is more important to long-term national security.
Another thing Mr. Trump grasped well before any other leader is the reality of Cold War II. The U.S. and China, a more formidable competitor than the Soviet Union ever was, are in a struggle for global leadership. Mr. Trump is determined that the U.S. give China no avoidable advantage and incur no avoidable vulnerability lest China exploit it. Every liberal democracy has a stake in American victory.
Allies take note: U.S. military assistance can’t be taken for granted, notwithstanding any treaty. The best way to ensure American help is to be the strongest possible ally, including by hosting American bases, because no country can expect another to do more for it than it would do for itself. The U.S. reluctantly entered two world wars because it wasn’t in America’s interest for Germany to win. The U.S. prosecuted the Cold War because of its interest in spreading Western values. Mr. Trump might not often speak about those values, but they’ve shaped him no less than his predecessors.
A world dominated by Beijing would resemble China, with the silencing of dissent, the confiscation of wealth, and the brutal exercise of power. At least under the Communist Party, China can never meet the yearning to be free that’s deep in almost every human heart. Conversely, a world that continues to be dominated by the U.S. will be on the path to greater freedom, prosperity and fairness because that’s in the American DNA, however unpredictable and abrasive Mr. Trump can sometimes be.
Two instincts drive Mr. Trump: his determination to be the world’s top leader and his determination that the U.S. not get ripped off. He doesn’t want Russia to win the Ukraine war, but he does want the war to end. He thinks it’s Europe’s job to keep the neighborhood bully at bay because collectively Europe has more people than the U.S. He admires Israel and was happy to demonstrate American power by bombing the Iranian nuclear-weapons facilities—but only after the Israelis had destroyed Iran’s air defenses. He understands that China’s taking Taiwan would be bad for the U.S. but thinks it’s crazy to risk a nuclear war over it. I’m sure he would be happy to help the Taiwanese develop their own version of Israel’s Iron Dome and develop swarms of antiship mines and drones. But would he run a modern version of the Berlin airlift if Beijing decided to blockade its “rebel province?” Let’s hope the Chinese think he might.
America’s allies have to rediscover their economic vigor, martial strength and sense of national purpose. If Mr. Trump can make that happen, he will have done us all a favor.
Tony Abbott served as Prime Minister of Australia from 2013 to 2015. He brings deep experience in global affairs, national security, and public policy, offering audiences firsthand insight into the challenges facing Western democracies. Known for his clear thinking and principled leadership, Mr. Abbott is a compelling speaker for those seeking perspective on international strategy, economic reform, and the future of democratic governance. To host Tony Abbott at your next event, contact WWSG.
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