Time to end secret data laboratories—starting with the CDC
The American people are waking up to the fact that too many public health leaders have not always been straight with them. Despite housing treasure…
Thought Leader: Marty Makary
Niall Ferguson: Trump, the Midterms, and the Six-Year Itch
Nearly every two-term president, from Truman to Obama, hits a wall in year six. Can Donald Trump avoid domestic-political disaster?
In this Free Press essay, Niall Ferguson examines the long-observed political phenomenon known as the “Six-Year Itch”—the tendency for two-term U.S. presidents to lose momentum, public support, and congressional power during the second year of their second term. Rooted in the Constitution’s fixed election cycles, this dynamic has repeatedly shaped American politics for more than a century.
Drawing on historical examples from Harry Truman to Barack Obama, Ferguson shows that even strong economic conditions rarely protect presidents from midterm backlash. Scandals, foreign policy crises, domestic unrest, and political overreach consistently undermine administrations at this stage, revealing that economic strength is a necessary—but insufficient—shield against political decline.
Ferguson places Donald Trump squarely within this historical pattern, arguing that despite favorable macroeconomic indicators, his second term exhibits familiar warning signs, including declining approval ratings and mounting political risk surrounding immigration enforcement. The essay also highlights a striking exception to the rule: Bill Clinton in 1998. Clinton survived the Six-Year Itch not only because of a booming economy, but because Republicans overreached with impeachment, alienating voters and reversing expected midterm gains.
The central conclusion is that history does not operate in rigid cycles—but it often rhymes. Most presidents falter in their sixth year, yet survival is possible when economic strength coincides with strategic restraint by political opponents. Whether Trump can replicate Clinton’s rare escape, Ferguson argues, will depend less on economic performance and more on how far his critics are willing to push.
Visit The Free Press to read the full article.
WWSG exclusive thought leader Sir Niall Ferguson is one of the world’s foremost historians of economics, international relations, and global power. His incisive analysis illuminates the geopolitical forces and economic undercurrents shaping the 21st century. From great power competition to emerging security challenges, Ferguson offers unparalleled historical context and strategic insight — helping global leaders, policymakers, and business executives anticipate what lies ahead. To invite Sir Niall Ferguson to your next event, contact WWSG
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