Doom: The Politics of Catastrophe by Niall Ferguson review
(Evening Standard) – From plagues and volcanic eruptions to the current Covid pandemic, mankind has always been faced with catastrophes.
Thought Leader: Niall Ferguson
Niall Ferguson Says Donald Trump Is Not an Isolationist
Oil prices will surge above $100 a barrel if Iran blocks the world’s most important crude shipping route in retaliation for America bombing its nuclear sites, analysts believe.
Iran’s parliament voted on Sunday to close the Strait of Hormuz, a crucial chokepoint through which tankers carry about a fifth of global oil supplies. All eyes are on whether Iran’s Supreme National Security Council decides to approve the often-threatened but never-implemented step, which analysts described as a “worst-case scenario”.
Kallum Pickering, chief economist at Peel Hunt, said an attempt by Iran to attack or mine the strait would cause “a significant global supply and price shock, depressing global GDP and pushing up inflation”.
Brent crude, the global benchmark oil price, has already risen by about $10 a barrel to more than $77 since Israel began its strikes on Iran on June 13, amid fears that Iran could block the strait. Weekend betting markets forecast that Brent would jump by another $4 to $5 a barrel when markets resumed trading late on Sunday night, taking prices above $80 a barrel for the first time since January.
Sir Niall Ferguson, the historian, has warned that markets have been “complacent” about the risk of Iran blocking the strait, as Tehran could strike out in its “death throes”. That would send oil “way above” $100 a barrel and cause a huge economic shock on a scale not seen since the 1970s, he told The Times CEO Summit.
WWSG exclusive thought leader Sir Niall Ferguson is one of the world’s foremost historians of economics, international relations, and global power. His incisive analysis illuminates the geopolitical forces and economic undercurrents shaping the 21st century. From great power competition to emerging security challenges, Ferguson offers unparalleled historical context and strategic insight — helping global leaders, policymakers, and business executives anticipate what lies ahead. To invite Sir Niall Ferguson to your next event, contact WWSG.
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