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Niall Ferguson: Maduro’s Capture Takes Us Back to the Future

Thought Leader: Niall Ferguson
January 4, 2026
Written by: Niall Ferguson

In this Free Press essay, Niall Ferguson examines the U.S. capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro and argues that the operation marks a return to an older American foreign policy tradition rather than a radical break from the past. Ferguson situates the move within what the Trump administration has labeled the “Trump Corollary” to the Monroe Doctrine, drawing a direct line to Theodore Roosevelt’s early-20th-century justification for U.S. intervention in the Western Hemisphere.

From there, Ferguson broadens the lens. He contends that many of today’s most heated political debates—tariffs, immigration, affordability, populism, and great-power rivalry—closely resemble those of the late 19th and early 20th centuries. The removal of Maduro, he argues, is not an isolated event but part of a wider pattern in which the United States is reasserting influence after decades of restraint, even as domestic politics remain consumed by familiar ideological extremes.

The essay also explores rising tensions between the United States and China. Ferguson compares the current moment not only to the Cold War, but more ominously to the Anglo-German rivalry before World War I, warning that history suggests the greatest dangers often emerge while public attention is focused elsewhere. Advances in artificial intelligence, he notes, may reshape economies, but they have done little to alter the underlying dynamics of power, competition, and political conflict.

Taken together, Ferguson’s argument is that the modern world increasingly resembles the geopolitical landscape of a century ago—defined by competing empires, economic nationalism, technological disruption, and unresolved questions about who sets the rules of global order.

Read the full article on The Free Press. 

WWSG exclusive thought leader Sir Niall Ferguson is one of the world’s foremost historians of economics, international relations, and global power. His incisive analysis illuminates the geopolitical forces and economic undercurrents shaping the 21st century. From great power competition to emerging security challenges, Ferguson offers unparalleled historical context and strategic insight — helping global leaders, policymakers, and business executives anticipate what lies ahead. To invite Sir Niall Ferguson to your next event, contact WWSG

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