Doom: The Politics of Catastrophe by Niall Ferguson review
(Evening Standard) – From plagues and volcanic eruptions to the current Covid pandemic, mankind has always been faced with catastrophes.
Thought Leader: Niall Ferguson
Niall Ferguson: A Republic, If You Don’t Throw It Away
In “A Republic—If You Don’t Throw It Away,” historian Niall Ferguson challenges the growing narrative that the American republic is on the brink of collapse. Writing as the United States approaches its 250th anniversary in 2026, Ferguson argues that fears of democratic death—particularly those likening Donald Trump to historical tyrants—are historically exaggerated and analytically weak.
Drawing on centuries of comparative history, Ferguson situates the United States within a long lineage of republics, from ancient Rome and Athens to Venice, the Dutch Republic, and Switzerland. While many republics have failed—often early and dramatically—others have proven remarkably durable. The key distinction, he argues, lies in institutional design. America’s Constitution, shaped deliberately by the Founders’ study of failed republics, was engineered to restrain ambition, manage factionalism, and preserve liberty through checks and balances, separation of powers, and an independent judiciary.
Ferguson contends that these safeguards are functioning as intended today. Courts continue to limit executive overreach, Congress remains contested rather than submissive, and electoral politics reflect historical patterns rather than authoritarian rupture. Comparisons to Weimar Germany or ancient Rome, he argues, misunderstand both history and the resilience of American institutions.
The essay further advances the idea that republics tend to follow a “fat-tailed” lifespan: many collapse quickly, but those that survive their early generations often endure for centuries as institutions become traditions embedded in everyday life. Through reflections on American political rhythms, civic rituals, and cultural continuity, Ferguson underscores a central theme: change and conflict are not signs of collapse, but features of republican life.
Ultimately, Ferguson offers a cautiously optimistic conclusion. Barring catastrophic failure—such as the loss of a major war—the historical record suggests that a republic that has lasted 250 years has a strong chance of lasting far longer. The American experiment, he argues, remains intact—not because it is immune to pressure, but because it was designed to withstand it.
WWSG exclusive thought leader Sir Niall Ferguson is one of the world’s foremost historians of economics, international relations, and global power. His incisive analysis illuminates the geopolitical forces and economic undercurrents shaping the 21st century. From great power competition to emerging security challenges, Ferguson offers unparalleled historical context and strategic insight — helping global leaders, policymakers, and business executives anticipate what lies ahead. To invite Sir Niall Ferguson to your next event, contact WWSG
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