By Niall Ferguson (Original source The Times)
In the entrance to the US Senate members’ dining room there’s an old menu from March 24, 1941. On the back — presumably to record a bet — seven senators wrote the dates when they thought their country would enter the Second World War. Theodore G Bilbo, a Democrat from Mississippi, thought “never”. So did D Worth Clark, one of the two senators from Idaho. Millard Tydings, of Maryland, hedged, guessing either July 14, 1941 “or 1961”. A fourth senator said September 17, 1945.
Aside from Tydings, only three of the seven predicted the nation would be at war before the end of the year, and not one of them got the month right. (They guessed July 24, August 24 and September 24, whereas the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor was on December 7 and the German declaration of war on America on December 11.)”
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