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Laurence Mussio: History teaches us how to manage risk
Thought Leader: Laurence Mussio
November 20, 2025
Source: The Globe and Mail
Written by: Laurence Mussio And Cosimo Pacciani
Dr. Laurence B. Mussio and Dr. Cosimo Pacciani argue that institutional resilience depends less on predictive models and more on institutional memory—the ability to learn, retain, and act on historical lessons. Using the 1569 explosion at Venice’s Grand Arsenal as a starting point, they show how Venice transformed catastrophe into strategic advantage by treating risk as actionable information rather than fate.
After the disaster exposed a critical vulnerability at the heart of Venetian naval power, the Republic responded by redesigning its systems: dispersing gunpowder storage, tightening security, and embedding lessons into institutional practice. This disciplined approach allowed Venice not only to recover quickly but to contribute decisively to the victory at Lepanto just two years later—demonstrating how proactive risk mitigation can strengthen long-term security.
The authors argue that this logic remains essential today. Modern crises—from industrial disasters and infrastructure failures to financial collapses and pandemic mismanagement—often stem from institutional forgetting rather than pure randomness. Risk, they contend, emerges in the gap between what organizations remember and what they ignore. Overreliance on short-term data, placid historical windows, and algorithmic models leaves institutions blind to recurring patterns that history has already documented.
Drawing parallels across centuries—from Rome’s grain supply to the Global Financial Crisis—the essay calls for a recalibration of modern risk management. The most resilient organizations, the authors conclude, combine advanced technology with historical literacy, embedding long-term memory into governance, stress testing, and strategic decision-making. True preparedness lies not in abandoning history for data, but in marrying computational power with institutional wisdom.
Download the full article PDF here: History teaches us how to manage risk_Globe & Mail
Dr. Laurence B. Mussio is a strategic historian and trusted advisor to CEOs who helps leaders make sense of today’s volatile geopolitical and economic landscape. Known for his ability to connect historical patterns to modern disruptions—from AI and trade shocks to institutional and market realignments—he brings clarity to moments of uncertainty.
As Chair of the Long Run Institute and a senior advisor to global executives, Dr. Mussio combines rigorous insight with engaging storytelling, offering audiences not just analysis, but a sharper strategic lens for navigating what comes next. To learn more, contact us today.
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