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Joe Grogan: The Alzheimer’s Economic Threat
Thought Leader: Joseph Grogan
December 8, 2025
Source: Real Clear Health
Written by: Joseph Grogan & Ryan Long
Social Security could become insolvent in as little as eight years, with more people retiring and living longer and fewer paying into the program. Alzheimer’s disease is accelerating America toward this fiscal disaster. The number of patients is on track to double to nearly 14 million by 2060, with each one requiring substantial caregiving, often from working-age relatives or professional caregivers. Two-thirds of those patients—more than the current population of Virginia—will die in nursing homes. This future would cut meaningful lives short while pushing vulnerable families toward financial ruin, straining the federal budget, and weakening the economy.
It doesn’t have to be this way. Investing in what British economist Andrew Scott calls a “longevity dividend” may allow older adults to live longer, healthier, and more productive lives, easing the financial strain on households and society. Scott estimates that raising individual healthy life expectancy by just one year would be worth about $566,000 per person.
Nations that keep people healthier longer have a distinct economic advantage. China has known this for years. In 2020, the country set an audacious goal to increase public awareness, diagnosis and treatment of Alzheimer’s to 80% this decade. Earlier this year, they doubled down on their commitment to address the challenges Alzheimer’s poses, including through massive workforce investment and increased attention to screening and early intervention. Now U.S. policymakers must answer and make Alzheimer’s a national priority.
Recapturing the longevity lost to Alzheimer’s would be a boon for families and the country. American households caring for people with Alzheimer’s disease not only lose an estimated $8 billion in annual earnings. They also shoulder 70% of the more than $400,000 it costs to care for each person with Alzheimer’s disease throughout their lives, in the forms of unpaid caregiving and out-of-pocket expenses.
The remaining 30% is covered by Medicare and Medicaid—$174 billion per year and $72 billion per year, respectively. Neither program is positioned to absorb a big increase in costs. The Medicare hospital insurance fund is set to run out of reserves in 2033. And state governments already spend more on Medicaid than any other activity except K-12 education. Growth in Medicaid spending strains their ability to fund roads, bridges and the universities that train the next generation of workers.
American scientists, clinicians, and innovators are pioneering breakthroughs in brain science that offer a way for the U.S. to unleash economic growth and help Americans lead happier, healthier lives. New FDA-approved blood biomarker tests can detect early Alzheimer’s in patients as young as 55, creating a valuable window for early intervention. Primary care physicians can administer the tests with a simple blood draw. They can dramatically speed up a diagnostic journey that takes the average American more than two years to navigate. New research shows that even moderate increases in daily exercise like walking can lower the risk of Alzheimer’s. Other studies are underway to diagnose and treat Alzheimer’s disease before symptoms are outwardly noticeable, which could give patients a decades-long head start on care planning and treatment options.
Researchers at USC recently showed that a drug which can slow cognitive decline, if given to seniors before age 70 and before they develop Alzheimer’s symptoms, could add a full year to their lives, reduce their time in nursing homes by nearly 2 years, slash their medical spending by $48,000, and even allow them flexibility to keep working. Across the whole economy, the benefits of these gains cannot be overstated. If people age 65-69 were as likely to participate in the labor force as people ages 60-64, the U.S. would have an additional 4.3 million workers, boosting GDP and easing labor shortages.
With this kind of potential, U.S. leaders should make it a national priority to deploy the knowledge and innovations needed to make these savings a reality. Primary care providers should be equipped and incentivized to recommend healthy lifestyle changes for all patients, especially seniors at risk of cognitive decline. Blood tests that can help diagnose Alzheimer’s should be covered as part of routine Medicare’s enrollment and annual wellness visits. The ASAP Act just introduced in Congress give Secretary Kennedy the authority to make this happen. The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) needs to eliminate the red tape the Biden administration put in place to limit patients’ access to Alzheimer’s therapies. And if gold standard studies support new tests and treatments that intervene before the symptoms of Alzheimer’s appear, then the FDA should approve them, and CMS should cover them without delay.
Sound policy choices could add years of healthy, productive life that could sustain GDP, keep the workforce strong, and improve the solvency of entitlement programs—while giving patients more cognitively vibrant years with the people they love. But if we fail to act, Alzheimer’s will only accelerate America’s path to financial vulnerability. China has made its choice. America must follow suit.
Joe Grogan is a Nonresident Senior Scholar at the USC Schaeffer Institute and served as director of the White House Domestic Policy Council under President Donald J. Trump. He consults for pharmaceutical companies. Ryan Long is the Director of Congressional Relations & Senior Research Fellow at Paragon Health Institute.
Joseph Grogan is a leading healthcare policy expert and former Director of the White House Domestic Policy Council. With more than 20 years of public and private sector experience, he has shaped some of the most impactful health policy debates of the past decade. Grogan brings a pragmatic, bipartisan perspective to issues of innovation, patient access, and healthcare reform. To book WWSG exclusive speaker Joseph Grogan, contact WWSG.
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