Doom: The Politics of Catastrophe by Niall Ferguson review
(Evening Standard) – From plagues and volcanic eruptions to the current Covid pandemic, mankind has always been faced with catastrophes.
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Jason Schenker: The Consultant Who Beat Wall Street Stands By Bullish Euro Call
One of the few analysts to correctly predict the euro’s rise against the dollar this year is sticking to his recommendation as he awaits the impact of trade tariffs on the US economy.
Jason Schenker, who runs Prestige Economics from his home in Austin, Texas, sees the euro climbing to $1.13 against the greenback by the end of the year, a 4.5% rise from current levels and among the highest forecasts in a Bloomberg poll.
Schenker was one of just six strategists surveyed by Bloomberg that came into 2025 predicting the euro would strengthen to more than $1.10 by year-end. The consensus among the remaining 40 was for more muted moves, with some predicting that the currency would slide to parity with the dollar.
His contrarian forecast was based in part on signs of weakness within the US economy. He’s keeping with that expectation as markets ready for the impact from the next leg of US President Donald Trump’s trade war.
“Because of the uncertainties of policies — and because of increases of tariff uncertainty more broadly — you may have confidence erode,” he warned. “I am less euro-bullish than I am dollar-bearish.”
His recommendation on the euro paid off, even though a large part of its success was down to Germany’s surprise spending package announced at the start of March, which pledged hundreds of billions for defense and infrastructure spending.
Standing Out
Before starting Prestige in 2009, Schenker was a risk specialist at McKinsey and worked as a commodities and energy economist at Wachovia.
Schenker, who often sports custom Lucchese cowboy boots adorned with the Texas state seal at conferences around the US and abroad, has been right at pivotal points in the currency markets before.
In August 2014, the analyst — who pens all Prestige’s forecasts — was the first in a Bloomberg FX poll to predict the euro would fall below 1.2 against the Swiss franc the following year. By January 2015, he was the sole analyst holding that view just as Switzerland’s central bank surprised the market by ending its cap on the franc’s strength.
“Being in Texas, I see a different slice of the world than I might see if I worked in Manhattan or London,” said Schenker.
Kinetic Conflict
Like his peers at big banks, Schenker focuses on traditional metrics like relative changes in growth, inflation and unemployment to shape his monthly forecasts. He also makes use of his expertise in geopolitics and national security as an adjunct fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.
Schenker argues that geopolitics will be a big driver of the dollar as the US takes an increasingly hawkish stance towards China. This will lead to a sort of “Cold War Two,” he says, an outcome that he feels so certain about that he’s trademarked the term and written a book to illustrate the phenomenon.
“If you look at this through the lens of countering China, you can see the downside dollar story pretty clearly,” he said. There’s a rising “probability of a kinetic conflict between the United States and China.”
Jason Schenker is a highly sought-after keynote speaker due to his expertise in economics, financial forecasting, and geopolitics. As one of the few analysts to accurately predict major currency movements, his deep understanding of market trends, trade policy, and global economic shifts makes his insights invaluable. His ability to blend traditional economic indicators with geopolitical analysis provides audiences with a well-rounded perspective on financial markets, business strategy, and risk management. Whether discussing currency fluctuations, trade wars, or broader economic trends, Schenker’s unique forecasting skills and real-world experience make him an engaging and authoritative speaker. Contact WWSG to host him as your next keynote speaker!
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