Ian Bremmer: The Top 10 Global Risks for 2026

This is a summary of a Time article by Ian Bremmer, which argues that 2026 will mark a decisive turning point in global affairs—not because of an imminent great-power war, but because the United States is actively unwinding the international order it once built. The result is a year defined by uncertainty, weakened guardrails, and rising systemic risk across politics, technology, and security.

Below are the ten forces Bremmer identifies as shaping this moment:

1. A U.S. Political Revolution
   What began as norm-breaking has become a system-level transformation. President Donald Trump’s efforts to consolidate power and weaken institutional checks make the U.S. the primary source of global instability in 2026. Even if the project fails, there will be no return to the previous status quo.

2. China’s Electric Advantage
   China has mastered the “electric stack” that powers EVs, batteries, drones, robotics, and AI—emerging as the world’s first “electrostate.” As the U.S. prioritizes fossil-fuel energy, Beijing is exporting next-generation infrastructure at scale.

3. The “Donroe Doctrine”
   Trump is reviving and reinterpreting the Monroe Doctrine to assert U.S. primacy in the Western Hemisphere. Venezuela represents a symbolic win, but regional stability will be far harder to secure.

4. Europe Under Strain
   France, Germany, and the U.K. enter 2026 with weak governments and growing populist pressure, limiting Europe’s ability to address economic malaise, security gaps, and support for Ukraine.

5. Russia’s Second Front
   The most dangerous confrontation shifts from Ukraine’s front lines to a broader hybrid conflict between Russia and NATO, increasing the risk of escalation in Europe.

6. State Capitalism, American Style
   The U.S. is moving deeper into an interventionist, transactional economic model that picks winners and losers domestically and abroad—setting precedents likely to endure.

7. China’s Deflation Trap
   Beijing is allowing deflation to deepen as political control and technological supremacy take precedence over consumer growth, increasing pressure on young workers and global markets.

8. AI Eats Its Users
   As AI firms struggle to justify valuations, some may adopt extractive business models that blur the line between information and influence, creating new social and political risks.

9. A Zombie USMCA
   North American trade remains in limbo, with the USMCA neither renewed nor dismantled—creating ongoing uncertainty for businesses and governments.

10. Water as a Weapon
    Water scarcity is becoming a geopolitical tool. With treaties suspended and no effective global framework, shared water resources are turning into future flashpoints.

Taken together, Bremmer’s article suggests that 2026 will be shaped less by a single crisis than by the erosion of the systems meant to prevent one.

Read the full Time article for Ian Bremmer’s complete analysis.

Booking Ian Bremmer brings unmatched value to any event by offering clear, compelling insights into the geopolitical forces shaping business, policy, and society. As a world-renowned political scientist, bestselling author, and media commentator, he translates complex global trends into actionable takeaways for leaders and audiences alike. His engaging, independent perspective ensures your attendees leave with a deeper understanding of the challenges—and opportunities—emerging on the world stage. Contact WWSG to host him for a speaking engagement.

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