Expert on Geopolitics & Business, Bestselling Author of The Billionaire Raj and The Perimeter, Distinguished Fellow at European Council on Foreign Relations, Award-winning Columnist and Writer
James Crabtree on Evolving Geopolitical Dynamics
As the author of forthcoming book The Perimeter, James Crabtree explains why a chain of islands running across the Pacific through Japan and the Philippines has become both the central fulcrum of US-China rivalry and the world’s most important geopolitical fall line. Drawing on years of original reporting from Okinawa, Taiwan, the Philippines and Guam, James explains why this thin band of territory now matters more to global stability than any other place on earth, and what it would mean for global markets, supply chains and security.
Audience takeaways: Why the “first island chain” has replaced the Middle East as the world’s most dangerous flashpoint; how military planners in Washington, Beijing and Tokyo are quietly preparing for confrontation; what a crisis in the Perimeter would mean for trade, technology and investment far beyond Asia.
The return of Donald Trump has accelerated a shift from a single global order to a fragmented world of competing power centres, each with its own rules, alliances and vision of legitimacy. As a globally recognised authority on security and geopolitics, James Crabtree takes his audience on a journey through a new world in which regional wars, economic nationalism and the weaponisation of technology are redrawing old alliances and creating new fault lines. James shows how this disorder is not chaos but a new and ultimately navigable system — one that creates fresh risks, and fresh opportunities, for governments and global businesses alike.
Audience takeaways: A framework for understanding a world with no single dominant order; how to distinguish genuine structural shifts from short-term noise; practical lessons on building resilience into strategy amid persistent volatility.
The relationship between the world’s two largest economies has moved from engagement to enduring strategic rivalry, playing out across trade, technology, finance and military posture. Drawing on more than a decade working in and around Asia, including in his role organizing the Shangri-La Dialogue Security summit, James maps how this competition is likely to evolve theatre by theatre — from semiconductors to the South China Sea — and what it means for companies forced to choose sides.
Audience takeaways: Where US-China rivalry is heading next, and the flashpoints most likely to escalate; how middle powers and multinationals are hedging their bets; practical implications for technology standards, trade routes and capital flows.
Since the war in Ukraine, states have increasingly turned financial systems, supply chains and market access into instruments of coercion, transforming semiconductors, rare earths and even shipping insurance into tools of strategic leverage. James explains how this new era of economic statecraft works in practice, and how governments and companies can manage a world where commercial relationships now carry serious geopolitical risk.
Audience takeaways: How sanctions, export controls and supply-chain chokepoints are reshaping corporate risk; which sectors and resources are most exposed to coercive economic tools; strategies for building resilience without retreating from global markets.
Artificial intelligence, advanced semiconductors and quantum computing are becoming the defining instruments of state power in the twenty-first century, blurring the line between private innovation and national strategy. James Crabtree draws on his deep knowledge across Asia’s tech and policy frontlines to explain how the contest for technological leadership is reshaping alliances, regulation and the global balance of power — and why winning this race matters as much as winning any war.
Audience takeaways: Why technology has become the central battleground of great-power competition; how governments are reshaping industrial policy around AI and chips; what this means for corporate strategy on R&D, investment and regulation.
Drawing on his award-shortlisted book The Billionaire Raj, James takes his audience on a journey around the economics of geopolitics of India’s extraordinary rise. In particular, he examines a new generation of tycoons whose fortunes — and political influence — rival the robber barons of America’s Gilded Age. He explains what this concentration of wealth means for India’s economy, politics and global ambitions, and why understanding India’s billionaire class is essential to understanding where the country, and its relationship with the world, is heading next.
Audience takeaways: How India’s economic boom is shaped by a small group of politically connected tycoons; the risks this poses to India’s long-term growth and governance; what global investors and businesses need to understand about India’s political economy as the country becomes a central pillar of Western Indo-Pacific strategy.
James Crabtree is an author and geopolitical strategist with extensive experience living and working in Asia. He is a distinguished visiting fellow in the Asia program of the European Council on Foreign Relations in Berlin, a fellow at the Asia Society in New York, and a columnist for Foreign Policy magazine. He is writing his second book—The Perimeter: The Struggle for Primacy in the Pacific—examining the future of America’s military presence in Asia, to be published in 2027 by W. W. Norton & Company. His first book, The Billionaire Raj: A Journey Through India’s New Gilded Age was short-listed as Financial Times/McKinsey business book of the year and named an Amazon book of the year.
Previously, he was the Singapore-based Executive Director of the Institute of International Strategic Studies in Asia, where he led the organization of the Shangri-La Dialogue security summit, and an Associate Professor in Practice at the Lee Kuan Yew School, Asia’s leading school of public policy. James also spent ten years as a journalist and foreign correspondent, notably for the Financial Times, where he was both Mumbai Bureau Chief and Comment Editor. He writes for a range of global publications from the FT and the New York Times to Foreign Affairs. Now based in London, he is also a senior advisor at both Flint Global and the London Defence Conference. Before moving to Asia, he worked in the UK Prime Minister’s Strategy Unit under Prime Ministers Gordon Brown and Tony Blair. He has worked for various think tanks in London and Washington D.C., and spent a number of years living in America, initially as a Fulbright Scholar at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government.
James has spoken at a number of BNY Mellon’s conferences and events and has entertained and enthralled our audiences in equal measure. He delighted us with an exceptional keynote on globalization and delivers unique perspectives. His debating skills are phenomenal, and he’s easy to work with.
Managing Director, BNY Mellon
