Doom: The Politics of Catastrophe by Niall Ferguson review
(Evening Standard) – From plagues and volcanic eruptions to the current Covid pandemic, mankind has always been faced with catastrophes.
Thought Leader: Niall Ferguson
Tony Abbott: If America Pulls Away, Then Others Must Step In
The infamous Oval Office stand-off between Presidents Zelensky and Trump was quite possibly a seismic moment in history. Here was the leader of the free world berating the greatest freedom fighter of recent times for having the temerity to stand up for his country.
While the Trump administration likes to keep everyone guessing and is constantly sending mixed signals, it’s quite likely that the long Pax Americana, that’s been so good for the wider world, is finally over. Even if President Trump’s successor has a stronger sense of what American leaders used to see as their duty, almost as America’s “manifest destiny”, to defend other countries’ freedom, it’s highly unlikely that future presidents will be as ready as previous ones to have Americans make sacrifices for others’ benefit.
After all, it’s a long time since President Kennedy’s stirring declaration that America would “pay any price, bear any burden, meet any hardship, support any friend, oppose any foe in order to assure the survival and success of liberty”. In their more restrained and courteous ways, Presidents Obama and Biden had also been warning America’s allies that they could no longer rely on America to be the world’s policeman.
A reduction, even a withdrawal of US support, might not be quite the disaster for Ukraine now, that it could have been even a few months back; given Ukraine’s extraordinary homegrown advances in the drone technology that’s now at the heart of war-fighting. But it’s a massive issue for the rest of Europe that has not treated Putin’s war as a wake-up call. Despite the fact that it has four times the population and at least eight times the GDP of Russia, Europe is currently in no position to resist future Russian aggression without the military and moral backing from the United States that it might no longer get.
It must now be beyond-obvious that crushing Ukraine is not the end of Putin’s ambitions. He’s called the disintegration of the Soviet Union the biggest geo-political disaster of the 20th century and is plainly set on the recreation of the old Russian empire, including the Baltic states and much of Poland, with all of Eastern Europe servile to Moscow. The problem for Ukraine, from any American indifference to the fate of free countries, is that a ceasefire might not come with the credible security guarantees needed to ensure that it’s not just a brief pause before a renewed Russian assault.
Eventually, this war will have to end. But it’s only if Russia stops fighting, that this war will end. If Ukraine stops fighting, Ukraine ends. That’s why any ceasefire has to include credible guarantees that any future Russian onslaught won’t just face Ukraine but an alliance strong enough to deter and defeat aggression.
The best way to secure the peace following any ceasefire would be NATO membership. But should an isolationist America veto that, the next best way would be the presence, on the Dnieper, of a strong Anglo-French force to guarantee Ukraine’s survival, in the same way that British and French troops were once present in West Germany. Australia’s Prime Minister Albanese has said that my country would consider contributing to such a force – and he was right to do so because it’s not just the freedom of Ukraine that’s at stake here but the leadership of the free world.
A confident America used to proclaim its indispensability, should there be any global problem needing to be solved. Now, it’s timid Europeans who plead American indispensability, in order to justify their unwillingness to shoulder the burdens of leadership that America no longer wants to bear. Even though the achievements of Donald Trump’s first administration include the Abraham Accords that helped to make the Middle East safer for its only democracy and giving Javelin missiles to Ukraine.
The danger this time round is the president doing deals with big countries at the expense of small ones. Resenting the ingratitude and the free-riding of America’s allies is fair enough but cutting them loose won’t strengthen America, just persuade friend and foe alike that America can no longer be trusted.
Perhaps the President’s dismay at Putin’s ongoing atrocities against civilians will jolt him him into giving Ukraine the extra help needed so that Russia can’t win. Perhaps Britain, with France, might actually step up to give again the leadership that’s been so crucial in earlier times. Perhaps India, the world’s second democratic super power could step up – but someone has to – because only strong leadership can secure peace with freedom.
If aggressors win, the world is doomed to much darker times: less free, less fair, less safe, and less rich – it will become a place where political opponents are routinely murdered, uncooperative business oligarchs fall out of windows, and retired spies are poisoned in parks – a world that more resembles Russia or China than the democratic West. That’s what’s coming, if in fear of tyrants, or complacency that it couldn’t happen here, the authors of cherished freedoms have lost the will to stand up for them.
Meanwhile, brave Ukraine fights on, avid for the freedoms it does not take for granted, unlike countries that have enjoyed them for centuries, an inspiration to the whole world.
Tony Abbott, former Prime Minister of Australia (2013–2015), is a bold voice on the global stage. With unmatched insight into international affairs, national security, and the future of Western democracy, he brings clarity and conviction to today’s most pressing issues. Renowned for his no-nonsense leadership and principled approach, Abbott challenges audiences to think critically about economic reform, strategic alliances, and democratic resilience. To bring Tony Abbott’s commanding perspective to your next event, contact WWSG.
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