“The New Europe?”: European Diplomatic History and the Future of the Middle East

This essay considers structural parallels between the collapse of the Congress System in nineteenth-century Europe and the downturn of the pax americana in the Middle East today.

By Niall Ferguson and Jay Mens

This essay considers structural parallels between the collapse of the Congress System in nineteenth-century Europe and the downturn of the pax americana in the Middle East today. Citing examples from European history to illustrate the enduring centrality of the United States to the Middle East’s balance of power, it offers lessons for the Middle East as the region faces its biggest shift in more than half a century.

Key Takeaways

• On October 7, 2023, attacks on Israel by Hamas highlighted the collapse of the old Middle Eastern system and the region’s chronic lack of a functioning state framework and balance of power.
• Internal wars in the Middle East have fragmented postimperial states; six of the seven fronts in Israel’s current war involve territories without unified sovereignty. It is hard to establish a balance of power in the absence of consolidated states.
• The last 50 years in the Middle East resemble the beginning, middle, and end of another system of international relations: the Congress System that emerged from the French Revolutionary Wars.
• Unlike in European diplomatic history, where alliances and diplomacy have stabilized the balance of power, the Middle East’s alliances have failed to shift its military and political equilibrium. The system still relies on American engagement, as it has for over 80 years, and there is no feasible alternative.
• US policy, once aimed at containing Iran, excluding Russia, and sustaining American influence, is now in flux. The old policy of preserving the balance of power is no longer an option.
• The second Trump administration must try to create a new system for managing the region’s geopolitics. Historical parallels suggest Israel resembles the UK’s transformative ambitions during the French Revolution and Crimean War, while Saudi Arabia mirrors Austria’s hedging strategy.

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