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Peter Zeihan: Can China Break the First Island Chain?
I often hear rumblings of China’s naval power, but one of the many reasons I pay no mind is the first island chain. This is a line of islands stretching from Japan through Taiwan and the Philippines down to Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore. And China has very little chance of breaking through that chain…here’s why.
China would have to occupy and pacify Taiwan and the Philippines’ Luzon. Then the Chinese would have to defeat Japan, which is laughable to even entertain. But let’s say China magically pulls that off, they’re still facing demographic collapse, dependance on imported materials, and trying to maintain global sea access. And of course, the US would withdraw protections from Chinese commercial shipping. Oh, and don’t forget the regional powers who would step in and ensure that China was contained.
Long story short, I’m not worried about China breaking through the first Island chain.
Peter Zeihan is a geopolitical strategist, which is a fancy way of saying he helps people understand how the world works. He combines an expert understanding of demography, economics, energy, politics, technology, and security to help clients best prepare for an uncertain future. With a keen eye toward what will drive tomorrow’s headlines, his irreverent approach transforms topics that are normally dense and heavy into accessible, relevant takeaways for audiences of all types. To host him for a speaking opportunity, contact WWSG.
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