Peter Goodman: Global Economy Is Facing the Prospect of Another Profound Shock

March 3, 2026

Written by: Peter Goodman

A protracted conflict in the Middle East risks a spike in energy prices and broader inflation.

In a recent New York Times analysis, economics reporter Peter Goodman examines how the escalating conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran could affect the global economy—particularly through disruptions to energy markets.

In the most optimistic scenario, the conflict ends quickly, allowing oil and gas production in the Middle East to continue uninterrupted and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz to resume normally. In that case, fears of an energy shock and rising inflation could ease.

However, many economists warn that the situation remains highly uncertain. The Middle East produces roughly 30 percent of the world’s oil and 17 percent of its natural gas, and about one-fifth of global oil supplies pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Any disruption to those flows could quickly push energy prices higher.

Rising energy prices would likely increase inflation globally, potentially forcing central banks to raise interest rates. Higher borrowing costs for mortgages, car loans, and business investment could slow economic activity and raise the risk of a global downturn. As Harvard economist and former IMF chief economist Kenneth Rogoff noted, the world is currently in a “very precarious period.”

Some historical comparisons point to the oil shocks of the 1970s, when supply disruptions led to soaring prices and economic instability. While global energy markets are more diversified today—with increased U.S. production and growing investment in renewable energy—the world remains heavily dependent on fossil fuels.

The conflict is particularly concerning for Europe and East Asia, which rely heavily on imported energy. Nations including China, Japan, Germany, South Korea, and others already facing trade tensions could see economic pressure intensify if energy costs rise further.

The United States may be somewhat insulated as the world’s largest oil producer, but American consumers would still likely feel the effects through higher gasoline prices and broader inflationary pressures.

Ultimately, the global economic outlook will depend heavily on whether the conflict remains contained—or expands into a broader disruption of energy production and transportation in the region.

Read Peter Goodman’s full analysis in The New York Times here.

Peter Goodman is a standout keynote speaker on global economics, trade policy, and financial markets, known for his ability to translate complex economic shifts into clear, compelling narratives. Goodman offers a vital perspective on the geopolitical and economic consequences of policy chaos, making him an essential voice for audiences seeking to understand the fragility of markets in an age of uncertainty. His speaking engagements are managed exclusively by WWSG. To host him for your events, contact us.