Doom: The Politics of Catastrophe by Niall Ferguson review
(Evening Standard) – From plagues and volcanic eruptions to the current Covid pandemic, mankind has always been faced with catastrophes.
Thought Leader: Niall Ferguson
Niall Ferguson: This Is How the Iran War Goes Global
As Trump sends the Marines to the Strait of Hormuz, he is opening strategic opportunities for China and Russia. Other choke points may soon be at risk.
In this Free Press article, Niall Ferguson examines the emerging U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran as what may become the world’s first “AI war,” where advanced technologies like artificial intelligence and drones are reshaping modern combat. Yet despite its futuristic elements, the conflict has quickly exposed a timeless geopolitical reality: control of strategic choke points—particularly the Strait of Hormuz—can disrupt global trade, drive energy prices higher, and destabilize the world economy.
Drawing on historical parallels from World War I and the 1980s “Tanker War,” Ferguson argues that policymakers often underestimate the unintended economic and strategic consequences of military decisions. He contrasts past failures, such as Britain’s disastrous Gallipoli campaign, with more effective U.S. interventions, emphasizing how miscalculation, political pressure, and rushed decision-making can escalate crises.
Ferguson ultimately warns that the greatest risk is not just regional instability, but the broader geopolitical ripple effects—especially opportunities for rivals like China and Russia to exploit U.S. distraction. He highlights a looming, even more critical choke point: the Taiwan Strait, which underpins the global semiconductor supply and future of AI. The article concludes with a stark question about global stability: while the Strait of Hormuz may be under threat today, the far greater long-term risk may lie in whether the Taiwan Strait remains open tomorrow.
Read the full article on The Free Press to explore the historical parallels, global risks, and what this conflict could mean for the future of world power.
WWSG exclusive thought leader Sir Niall Ferguson is one of the world’s foremost historians of economics, international relations, and global power. His incisive analysis illuminates the geopolitical forces and economic undercurrents shaping the 21st century. From great power competition to emerging security challenges, Ferguson offers unparalleled historical context and strategic insight — helping global leaders, policymakers, and business executives anticipate what lies ahead. To invite Sir Niall Ferguson to your next event, contact WWSG
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