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Niall Ferguson: How to Stop Iran From Winning the War

Thought Leader: Niall Ferguson
April 9, 2026
Written by: Niall Ferguson, Richard Haass, and Philip Zelikow

As talks begin this Saturday, the top priority is clear: The Strait of Hormuz must reopen, but not on Iran’s terms.

In a recent Free Press article, Niall Ferguson, Richard Haass, and Philip Zelikow examine the global stakes of the ongoing conflict between the United States and Iran, centered on control of the Strait of Hormuz—one of the world’s most critical energy chokepoints. Iran’s closure of the strait has disrupted global oil and gas flows, driving up prices and increasing the risk of economic instability worldwide.

The authors argue that Iran must not be allowed to dictate terms over this vital waterway or impose tolls on global commerce. Drawing on historical precedents, they outline a three-step strategy for the United States and its allies: demonstrate the capability to reopen the strait by force if necessary, pursue interim agreements to restore limited transit, and ultimately establish a new international framework to govern the strait’s long-term use.

Their proposed solution includes creating a neutral, internationally managed system to ensure free and secure passage for all nations—preventing any single country from controlling global trade flows. The broader message is clear: maintaining open access to strategic waterways like Hormuz is essential to global economic stability and must be enforced through coordinated international leadership.

WWSG exclusive thought leader Sir Niall Ferguson is one of the world’s foremost historians of economics, international relations, and global power.His incisive analysis illuminates the geopolitical forces and economic undercurrents shaping the 21st century. From great power competition to emerging security challenges, Ferguson offers unparalleled historical context and strategic insight — helping global leaders, policymakers, and business executives anticipate what lies ahead. To invite Sir Niall Ferguson to your next event, contact WWSG

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