Doom: The Politics of Catastrophe by Niall Ferguson review
(Evening Standard) – From plagues and volcanic eruptions to the current Covid pandemic, mankind has always been faced with catastrophes.
Thought Leader: Niall Ferguson
Niall Ferguson: How Great Powers Lose Wars They’re Winning
Nearly 70 years after the Suez Crisis, the United States may have marched into a strikingly similar trap in the Strait of Hormuz.
In this Niall Ferguson argues that the U.S. risks repeating the mistakes of the 1956 Suez Crisis in its current conflict with Iran. Just as Britain, France, and Israel achieved early military success in Egypt but ultimately suffered economic and geopolitical defeat, the U.S. may win tactically while losing strategically.
Ferguson draws a direct parallel between Suez and today’s situation in the Strait of Hormuz. In both cases, Western powers partnered with Israel to confront a hostile regime and secure a critical global waterway. While the military campaigns initially appeared successful, the real consequences came from economic disruption—especially the closure of key oil routes—which triggered political backlash and forced withdrawal.
A central lesson is that control of strategic chokepoints matters as much economically as militarily. Egypt in 1956, like Iran today, lost on the battlefield but retained leverage by disrupting global trade. This shifted the balance of power and exposed the limits of Western intervention.
Ferguson also highlights internal miscalculations: overconfidence, weak planning for post-war outcomes, and a failure to anticipate economic fallout. In both Suez and the current conflict, leaders underestimated how quickly financial pressure, inflation, and global instability could undermine military gains.
Most importantly, he warns of long-term geopolitical consequences. Suez marked the decline of British global dominance and the rise of a new world order led by the United States. Today, a similar misstep could damage U.S. credibility, weaken alliances, and create an opening for rivals like China and Russia to expand their influence.
Ultimately, Ferguson’s argument is that even if the U.S. achieves short-term military objectives, it risks a larger strategic failure—what he calls a potential “American Suez”—where economic strain, political division, and global perception outweigh battlefield success.
Visit The Free Press to read the full article.
WWSG exclusive thought leader Sir Niall Ferguson is one of the world’s foremost historians of economics, international relations, and global power. His incisive analysis illuminates the geopolitical forces and economic undercurrents shaping the 21st century. From great power competition to emerging security challenges, Ferguson offers unparalleled historical context and strategic insight — helping global leaders, policymakers, and business executives anticipate what lies ahead. To invite Sir Niall Ferguson to your next event, contact WWSG
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