Niall Ferguson: Has the U.S. Lost the Iran War?

June 9, 2026

On Sunday, the war with Iran reignited—yet again. Iran fired a ballistic missile barrage at Israel, a move that followed Israel’s targeting Hezbollah in Lebanon.

President Trump urged Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu not to strike back. But Netanyahu did anyway—prompting observers everywhere to ask: Did Bibi just defy the president? Did the two reach some other agreement behind closed doors? What does any of it tell us about the state of the U.S.-Israel relationship? And is this war winding down, or are we on the path to a protracted conflict? On Tuesday, Trump vowed to retaliate against Iran after an Apache helicopter went down near the Strait of Hormuz—demonstrating once again the precarious nature of the conflict.

Today I’m joined by Free Press columnist and historian Niall Ferguson to make sense of this moment.

We dig into the multiple rounds of negotiations aimed at ending the war, all of which have failed; the question of who holds the upper hand—Iran or the U.S.; whether the war was worth it; and if we are now in a more dangerous position than before it started.

As one of today’s leading historians and geopolitical thinkers, Niall Ferguson brings exceptional depth and clarity to conversations about global strategy, economic power, and international conflict. His ability to connect history with current events makes him an especially valuable speaker for corporate audiences, leadership forums, and policy-focused conferences seeking insight into today’s rapidly shifting geopolitical landscape. To learn more about hosting Niall Ferguson at your next event, contact WWSG.

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