Doom: The Politics of Catastrophe by Niall Ferguson review
(Evening Standard) – From plagues and volcanic eruptions to the current Covid pandemic, mankind has always been faced with catastrophes.
Thought Leader: Niall Ferguson
Niall Ferguson: Could This Be the Start of World War III?
The most U.S.-Israeli onslaught on Iran may look to future historians like a staging post to a global conflagration.
In a recent Free Press analysis, historian Niall Ferguson examines whether the escalating conflict involving Iran could evolve into a wider global crisis—or remain a regional war with significant economic consequences.
Ferguson notes that while early fears of World War III accompanied Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, similar concerns have resurfaced with the latest war involving Iran. History, he argues, shows that major global conflicts often begin as separate regional wars before converging into something larger—much like World War II.
His base case, however, is that the current conflict will likely remain limited in duration. If the fighting ends within a few weeks, the disruption to global energy markets may resemble previous Gulf Wars rather than the severe oil shocks of the 1970s. The biggest economic risk centers on the Strait of Hormuz, a vital shipping route for global oil and gas. If the strait remains disrupted for an extended period, energy prices could spike and trigger inflationary pressure across the global economy.
Ferguson also highlights several key uncertainties shaping the war’s trajectory: how long the conflict lasts, whether Iran can sustain missile and drone attacks, the potential for regime change in Tehran, and whether the war spreads further across the Middle East. Already, more than a dozen countries in the region have been affected by strikes or military activity.
Beyond the immediate battlefield, Ferguson frames the conflict as part of a broader geopolitical struggle he calls “Cold War II,” centered on competition between the United States and China. Iran plays an important role in this dynamic, particularly as a major oil supplier to China and a regional partner opposing U.S. influence. As a result, the war has implications far beyond the Middle East, affecting global energy markets, alliances, and the balance of power among major nations.
Ultimately, Ferguson argues that the most likely outcome is not World War III but a significant chapter in this emerging global rivalry. Still, the longer the war continues—and the more it disrupts global energy flows—the greater the economic and geopolitical consequences for Europe, Asia, and the broader international system.
Read Niall Ferguson’s full analysis in The Free Press.
WWSG exclusive thought leader Sir Niall Ferguson is one of the world’s foremost historians of economics, international relations, and global power. His incisive analysis illuminates the geopolitical forces and economic undercurrents shaping the 21st century. From great power competition to emerging security challenges, Ferguson offers unparalleled historical context and strategic insight — helping global leaders, policymakers, and business executives anticipate what lies ahead. To invite Sir Niall Ferguson to your next event, contact WWSG
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