Doom: The Politics of Catastrophe by Niall Ferguson review
(Evening Standard) – From plagues and volcanic eruptions to the current Covid pandemic, mankind has always been faced with catastrophes.
Thought Leader: Niall Ferguson
Eyck Freymann: Shutting Hormuz is a template for China in Taiwan
This article argues that Iran’s recent disruption of the Strait of Hormuz reveals a new model of modern conflict—one based on economic coercion rather than direct military confrontation. By using limited missile and drone strikes, Iran was able to effectively shut down a major global oil route without large-scale warfare, primarily by making the risk too high for insurers and commercial shipping.
The author warns that this strategy is highly replicable—especially by a more powerful actor like China in the Taiwan Strait. Rather than launching a traditional invasion, China could impose control through legal claims, military signaling, and targeted disruption, creating “exclusion zones” that deter global shipping and trade. Even minimal escalation could cause insurers and companies to withdraw, effectively isolating Taiwan without a full blockade.
The stakes in such a scenario would be far greater than in the Middle East. Taiwan is central to the global economy, producing over 90% of the world’s most advanced semiconductors. A disruption to Taiwan’s trade would not only trigger an energy crisis across Asia but also cripple global industries reliant on chips—from electronics to automobiles—potentially causing widespread financial instability.
The article emphasizes that China’s long-term strategy may rely on endurance, betting it can outlast the U.S. and its allies economically. Meanwhile, the U.S. and its partners are currently unprepared for this kind of prolonged economic conflict, lacking sufficient stockpiles, logistics planning, and coordinated crisis response systems.
Ultimately, the key warning is that the next major global crisis may not look like traditional war. Instead, it could unfold through economic disruption that forces difficult choices between escalation and acceptance of a new geopolitical reality.
Visit The Financial Times to read the full article.
Dr. Eyck Freymann is a keynote speaker who delivers unparalleled perspective on the evolving U.S.-China relationship. Drawing on deep expertise in CCP strategy, global economics, and national security, he translates complex geopolitical trends into clear, practical takeaways for business leaders, investors, and policymakers. Whether advising on high-stakes decisions or addressing audiences worldwide, Dr. Freymann provides the foresight and clarity needed to navigate today’s shifting global order. Contact WWSG to bring Eyck to your next speaking engagement.
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