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Eyck Freymann: Preparing for the Worst
If Xi Jinping moves to take Taiwan by force, it will require logistical and political preparations that cannot be hidden from the rest of the world. In an essay adapted from his new book, Defending Taiwan, Eyck Freymann looks at how the U.S. and its allies can try to prevent Xi from pulling the trigger — and what they must do if he does.
In this The Wire China article, Eyck Freymann argues that great power conflicts—like Russia’s invasion of Ukraine—rarely happen without warning. Instead, they unfold through visible military buildups, political signaling, and escalating pressure that can be detected months in advance. Drawing on Russia’s actions in 2021, Freymann shows how mobilization serves not just as preparation for war, but as a tool of coercion designed to test adversaries and shape outcomes without immediate conflict.
He applies these lessons to a potential China–Taiwan crisis, emphasizing that any move by China would likely follow a similar pattern of gradual escalation. Military preparations, political messaging, cyber activity, and economic positioning would all act as early warning signals—though ambiguity would make it difficult to distinguish between exercises and real intent. This “gray zone” pressure is central to China’s strategy, forcing the United States into difficult decisions about when and how to respond.
Freymann highlights that deterrence is not just military, but deeply economic and political. A Taiwan crisis would disrupt global trade, financial markets, and supply chains, placing immense pressure on U.S. decision-making. Without credible plans to manage domestic economic fallout, U.S. deterrence risks losing effectiveness—potentially allowing China to leverage economic interdependence as a strategic advantage.
Ultimately, Freymann argues that the United States must proactively plan for the full pathway to conflict, including how it would respond at each stage of escalation. Waiting for a clear act of war is not a viable strategy. Instead, effective deterrence requires preparation, clear communication, and readiness to act decisively in moments of crisis—what he calls the “break-the-glass” scenario.
Visit The Wire China to read the full article.
Dr. Eyck Freymann is a keynote speaker who delivers unparalleled perspective on the evolving U.S.-China relationship. Drawing on deep expertise in CCP strategy, global economics, and national security, he translates complex geopolitical trends into clear, practical takeaways for business leaders, investors, and policymakers. Whether advising on high-stakes decisions or addressing audiences worldwide, Dr. Freymann provides the foresight and clarity needed to navigate today’s shifting global order. Contact WWSG to bring Eyck to your next speaking engagement.
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