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Democrats’ midterm reality check

Thought Leader: Josh Kraushaar
September 20, 2022
Source: Link

After Democrats’ surge in political momentum over the summer, signs indicate the midterm environment is tilting back in the GOP’s direction.

Why it matters: Republicans aren’t likely to ride a historic red wave to power. But they’re well-positioned to comfortably win back the House, and are on surer footing than just weeks ago to net the one seat necessary to capture a narrow Senate majority.

What we’re watching: Inflation isn’t slowing down, according to this month’s Consumer Price Index. Biden’s celebration of the Inflation Reduction Act occurred on a day when the stock market plunged over 1,200 points, prompting ridicule from Republicans who see inflation as their top campaign issue.

By the numbers: RealClearPolitics polling averages in Georgia and Nevada now show the Democratic senators tied or trailing their GOP challengers. That’s a precarious position for any incumbent to be in at this point.

But, but, but: Beyond running as the opposition, Republicans are still struggling to advance a winning message for their party.

Reality check: The elevation of weak Senate candidates is the biggest political challenge for Republicans in the home stretch.

Be smart: Control of the Senate will likely come down to three races: Georgia, Nevada and Pennsylvania. The party that wins two of those three is poised to hold a narrow 51-seat Senate majority.

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