Anders Fogh Rasmussen: Allies Must Counter Russia’s Arctic Rise

Allies must focus on enhancing surveillance capabilities to detect Russian submarines in Arctic waters, Fogh Rasmussen said. He declined to detail what Arctic capability targets could entail, adding that “part of the deterrence is a kind of ambiguity. You have to keep your enemy or your adversary uncertain about your capacity.”

Long considered a low-tension zone, the Arctic is gaining security importance as melting ice reshapes global geography. With Sweden and Finland now members of the Western military alliance, seven of eight Arctic states fall under the Article 5 collective security guarantee.

Formally adopting Arctic capability goals would mark a clear shift in NATO’s strategic focus, recognizing the region as a core security concern and paving the way for forces specifically trained and equipped for Arctic conditions.

Security in the Arctic is a growing concern among key members of NATO. President Donald Trump has cited US and international security as the reason he wants to acquire Greenland from Denmark, criticizing the Nordic country for underinvesting in defense on the island.

Denmark has recently committed to boosting military investment in Greenland, though lawmakers are awaiting NATO’s capability goals before finalizing plans, which may include naval vessels tailored for Arctic operations. Danish officials have previously called for formal Arctic targets, arguing such measures would allow their Greenland expenditure to count toward NATO’s collective defense commitments.

Fogh Rasmussen said it’s “high time” Denmark invests more in defense in Greenland but firmly rejected the idea that Trump needs to acquire the island for security purposes. He noted the US has retrenched on the territory and pointed to a decades-old treaty that already allows the US to establish more military bases in Greenland. Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen has signaled readiness to allow such an expansion.

Trump’s Greenland ambitions have strained relations between Washington and Copenhagen in recent months. Last week, Denmark summoned the US acting ambassador over a report that the Trump administration had ordered intelligence agencies to spy on Greenland as part of its takeover efforts. Fogh Rasmussen said such actions are only “counterproductive” to Trump’s aims, citing also Vice President JD Vance’s visit to Greenland in March.

“All those actions work against Trump’s desire to take over Greenland,” he said. “A new unity government has been formed in Greenland, they’ve stopped talking about independence and want to strengthen cooperation with Denmark. They’ve said clear no to an American takeover.”