Tom Davis in Politico: Decoding Tuesday's Election Results

By: Alexander Burns, Politico.com

With this week's elections in a dozen states complicating the political outlook for 2010, Morning Score assembled its panel of House race experts to try and decode the results. Offering their takes on this week's returns are former NRCC Chairmen Tom Davis, Tom Reynolds and Tom Cole, former NRCC spokesman Carol Forti, DCCC Chairmen Martin Frost and Vic Fazio and former DCCC executive directors Karin Johanson and Brian Wolff.

THE QUESTION: What was the most important election result this week, and what we learn about the 2010 campaign?

TOM COLE: "The most important result of the primaries was the success of women in general and GOP women in particular. Aside from the merits of the individual candidates, their success is proof positive that outsiders are the preferred candidates this cycle. That is bad news for Democrats in November as they are the insiders in DC. The anti-incumbent mood of the electorate will morph into an anti-Democrat mood in November."

MARTIN FROST: "There is no question that the Arkansas result was the most important thing that happened on June 8. It demonstrated several important things: (1) it is extremely difficult to defeat an incumbent from the left in a statewide Southern primary; (2) a smart candidate like Blanche Lincoln can make a real issue out of large amounts of out-of-state money attempting to determine the outcome of a race in a small state and (3) effective voter turnout efforts in the minority community (black precincts in Pulaski County) can work even when Obama is not on the ticket if very carefully targeted and backed up by media ads by a popular figure like Bill Clinton and recorded phone messages by President Obama. Finally, and of equal importance to all of the above, is that candidates make a difference. Blanche Lincoln was terrific candidate who showed passion and determination."

TOM DAVIS: "It's a political revolt out there. Jane Harman's numbers were down. Gary Miller's under 50 percent. Even the establishment Republicans in Virginia who run, they had multiple candidates against them and they were well under 50. Now, that's in primaries, and we have to remember that it's going to be more pronounced in primaries. In generals, it comes to a choice between parties, and that's where I think the Democrats have more to fear. [For Blanche Lincoln,] it's like do you want to shoot me now or shoot me later? Even for Harry Reid – he's back off life support at this point, because Angle is a little unorthodox. … Also, Tim Scott in the 1st District of South Carolina, you may have an African-American Republican coming back, you may have an Indian-American governor. … It offers some possibility for party rebirth in a healthy way."

KARIN JOHANSON: "(1) At least until the general election, people in Washington should stop trying to predict the outcome of elections. (2) Not all incumbents are going to lose. (3) Democratic and Republican women candidates will do well this year campaigning as outsiders, even if they really are insiders. (4) Most important, Bill Clinton can, and will, campaign lots of places and help lots of Democrats."

CARL FORTI: "The most important primary result from this week’s primaries was the result in Arkansas. Lincoln proved that even in this anti-incumbent year an incumbent can win with a message that resonates with voters, and her victory gives hope to other incumbents out there who will or should use this race as a case study. But lessons can also be learned in Nevada and the [Bob] Inglis race where favorites/incumbents went down. Voter anger and frustration is real and incumbents ignore it at their peril."

BRIAN WOLFF: "It is still very difficult to beat incumbents. It’s not an anti-incumbent environment so much as it is an anti-establishment environment. [For example,] Jane Harman (reporters actually believed she was in trouble), and of course, Blanche in the Senate. Jane Harman is a rock and perfect example of incumbents who easily beat conventional wisdom. For all the stories about the anti-incumbent environment only one House Democrat has lost — [Alan] Mollohan."

TOM REYNOLDS: "Republicans for the most part are getting the candidates they wanted or who fit the profile of what voters are looking to elect and send to Washington. Big Labor Bosses from Washington were denied trying to use their money and muscle to make Sen. Lincoln an example of, if you don't vote for our special interests agenda we are going to take you out on primary day with someone who will. Democrats feel less labor boss intimidation today."

VIC FAZIO: "While the anti-incumbency continues, I think you saw in Arkansas, where the outsider versus insider thing worked for Blanche, that it's more complex. It's anti-establishment. It's somebody who's for us, generally, and not representing anyone else, and the more you can get on their side the better. And of course we'll continue to see more of this. ... you see it [in South Carolina], and the extent to which Gary Miller doesn't do well."